Ballot Question 3 –
Poll Indicates Voters Deeply Split

Massachusetts voters are deeply split over a November ballot question that would slash the state sales tax, a new Globe poll indicates, with a narrow plurality of those surveyed saying they favor the proposal. Forty-six percent of likely voters said they support Question 3, to cut the sales tax from 6.25 percent to 3 percent, while 43 percent said they were opposed and the rest undecided. The difference is within the poll’s margin of error.

The tax cut proposal has alarmed Beacon Hill and is opposed by all three major gubernatorial candidates, unions, business groups, and most of the state’s political leadership. The “yes’’ campaign is led by Carla Howell, a libertarian activist who organized the signature drive to place the question on the ballot.

Critics of the proposal say it would have a devastating impact on the state by leading to massive layoffs and deep cuts to education, local aid, and law enforcement. A recent Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation (MTF) report, Question 3: Heading Over the Cliff, concludes that if Question 3 passes, state leaders would face a $4.5 billion dollar shortfall in the fiscal 2012 budget – an already existing structural deficit of at least $2 billion plus $2.5 billion of reduced tax revenues due to the cut in the sales tax from 6.25 percent to 3 percent. Because almost half of the state’s $32 billion budget is spending that is legally required, the $4.5 billion in reductions must be spread over the remaining $16.9 billion of “discretionary” spending, which would require across-the-board cuts of 28.4 percent. State programs have already been cut by more than $2 billion since the fiscal crisis began in 2009.

In addition, since the tax cut would take effect on January 1, 2011, the state would have to deal with the loss of approximately $1 billion in sales tax revenues in fiscal 2011, requiring large mid-year cuts across state government. According to the “Vote No on 3” campaign

Here’s where some of the pain would be felt.

• Public Education . public schools and colleges would have to absorb a huge share of the cuts. There would be massive layoffs, bigger class sizes, disruption of programs and a decline in the quality of education in our schools and colleges.
• Health Care. More cuts will hurt already struggling community hospitals, school nursing services, public health initiatives and community health centers.
• Quality of Life . Local aid to cities and towns would be slashed, affecting public safety, parks and recreation, senior services, libraries, road repair and so much more.
• Economy . By causing the sudden layoff of so many teachers, firefighters, police officers, social workers and others while we are still coping with a recession, a cut of this size could halt – or even reverse – the state’s economic recovery.
• Property Taxes . Cities and towns would be forced to raise property taxes and seek overrides simply to maintain basic services. This would put an added burden on many lower and middle income taxpayers. 

The MTF report also points out that even with last year’s increase in the sales tax from 5 percent to 6.25 percent, Massachusetts still ranks in the bottom group of states in terms of sales tax burden. Of the 45 states with a broad-based sales tax, Massachusetts ranks 43rd in revenues collected per $1,000 of income and 35th per capita. Massachusetts has a very narrow base on which sales taxes are collected (e.g. exempting food, clothing up to $175, and services), which is the principal explanation for its low ranking even with a rate of 6.25 percent.

Also on the ballot this fall is a measure that would exempt alcohol from the sales tax. It is opposed by half of likely voters, the Globe poll found. Fifty percent said they were against it, and 36 percent said they were in favor. Both issues will be on the Nov. 2 ballot, with a “no’’ vote preserving the tax rates at their current levels and a “yes’’ vote cutting them. The proceeds from this tax are earmarked for substance abuse treatment programs.

Other tax-cut measures have failed in the past; proposals to eliminate the state income tax were defeated in 2002 and 2008. But the new poll suggests many voters are receptive to the antitax campaign this year.

-From “In poll, edge goes to sales tax cut: Voters sharply divided amid intense effort to defeat state measure”by Alan Wirzbicki, The Boston Globe, September 27, 2010, at http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/09/27/in_poll_edge_goes_to_sales_tax_cut/, retrieved 9/27/10; Fact Sheet, Vote No on Question 3 campaign, http://votenoquestion3.com/question-3-fact-sheet.pdf retrieved 9/27/10, and “ MTF Report on Question 3: Heading Over the Cliff”, Mass. Taxpayers Foundation press release, http://www.masstaxpayers.org/files/MTF%20Question%203%20News%20Release.pdf, September 22, 2010, retrieved 9/27/10.

 

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